Are we heading towards a “qualifying championship” as Vasseur fears?

100%: this is the conversion rate of pole positions into victories at the start of the 2025 season. Lando Norris in Australia, Oscar piastri in China, Max Verstappen in Japan: all of them have achieved a pole position-victory double in the first three rounds of the championship. We could even add the Sprint race in Shanghai, where Lewis Hamilton had won from first place on the grid. Since the start of the hybrid era in 2014, this situation (after three Grands Prix) has only occurred twice more, in 2020 and 2023. Two of the least competitive seasons in recent years...

Vasseur not very optimistic

If we break down each of the first three rounds, including the Sprint, the poleman was never really in danger of winning. In Australia, Lando Norris had a scare in the rain, but fair and square, the Briton fully deserved his victory. In China, his teammate responded in the best possible way with a controlled victory. The day before, Lewis Hamilton never needed to defend his position against the Australian. Finally, last weekend at Suzuka, Max Verstappen managed to hold off McLaren yet favorites but harmless.

It's been a constant since the start of the season: at the front of the pack, overtaking has been rare, and Suzuka was the perfect example: the Top 6 remained unchanged between the start and the finish, a first in the history of the F1 for a permanent circuit (excluding street circuits). This year more than ever, qualifying seems to be crucial for the Grand Prix. This is in any case what Frédéric Vasseur emphasized at the finish of a soporific Japanese Grand Prix. “Qualifying is definitely always crucial for performance. The closer you are, the smaller the gap between the cars, and that’s even more true because you’re this group of cars. It’s not that you’re fighting with the driver in front of you. Yes, it will probably be a ‘qualifying championship’,” launched the Team Principal of the Team Ferrari.

Is it the fault of performance convergence?

A statement echoed in the drivers' reactions at the finish of the Japanese Grand Prix. Many indicated that their race had been conditioned by their qualifying the day before, like the McLaren drivers, who were beaten by a few thousandths of a second by Max Verstappen. "He was flat out from start to finish, but the pace was too similar to do anything. Max drove a good race, without any mistakes, and it ultimately came down to the qualifying positions.", confided Lando Norris after his 2nd place at Suzuka. Same story for Oscar Piastri: "We were close to overtaking several times, but track position is so important here. I think yesterday was the day we could actually win the race."

So, how can we explain such a lack of overtaking at the front of the field at the start of the season? The answer probably lies in the current technical regulations, which are "maturing" and expiring at the end of the 2025 campaign. Indeed, the convergence of performance may offer us extremely competitive qualifying sessions and tiny gaps, but it also has certain drawbacks. With single-seaters becoming increasingly aerodynamically advanced, but inevitably increasingly sensitive to disturbances, following and closing in on the car in front has become almost mission impossible. This phenomenon is not new: in 2024, there were 70 fewer overtaking attempts than in 2023... despite two more races. Betting everything on qualifying and "catch-up" in the race: will this be the new trend in F1 this season? Let's hope not.

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