By 2026, a liter of fuel in Formula 1 could cost $300

Like any industry, the Formula 1 is not immune to market forces, particularly what economists call the learning curve. This concept refers to the gradual decline in production costs as experience accumulates. The more a company produces a technology, the more it refines its process, which reduces costs. This is why innovation is generally expensive in its early stages. F1 could pay the price in 2026, with the introduction of its new sustainable fuel.

As part of its “zero carbon” objective by 2030, the FIA ​​intends to impose a fully renewable fuel starting next year. According to The Race, concerns are already emerging about the costs of this transition: while in 2025, a liter of fuel costs between $22 and $33, in 2026 it is estimated to be between $170 and $225. Worse, some estimates suggest a possible peak at $300 per liter—ten times the current price.

An economic shock that the learning curve could, however, mitigate. Nikolas Tombazis, director of single-seaters at the FIA, is reassuring: " Prices will come down, like all technologies. Initially, everything is new, everything is innovative, and in a way, everything is just a prototype. And little by little, as companies learn, they will gradually reduce their costs. I'm not saying it's realistic for this technology to apply to road cars tomorrow, but I think the experience our partners have gained will help them reduce costs. They need to do this for F1 as well as for everyday business. »

$2,4 million a year for fuel?

At around $25 a liter (22 euros), it's easy to see that the fuel used by Formula 1 single-seaters has nothing to do with the fuel distributed in our gas stations. Since 2022, the discipline has used a specific fuel, E10, composed of 10% renewable ethanolA transitional solution before the introduction, planned for 2026, of a fully sustainable fuel.

Faced with the exploding costs associated with this transition, the FIA ​​is already looking for ways to reduce costs for 2027. However, for 2026, the fate seems sealed: the teams will have to bear this increase without being able to count on external assistance. Aware of the budgetary pressure, the federation has nevertheless decided to exclude these fuel expenses from the budget cap. In other words, they will remain the responsibility of the teams, but will not be counted towards the financial limit imposed by the regulations.

On average, this increase would represent between $1,9 million and $2,4 million for a 24-race Grand Prix season. And the cost could climb even higher for teams that don't benefit from a partnership with a fuel supplier. These figures are significant for teams, especially smaller ones.

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