AUTOhebdo predictions for Portimão: first trends

24 years after its previous edition, the Portuguese Grand Prix makes an unexpected but welcomed return to the calendar with a unique meeting. The Estoril track is followed by the Portimão track, nestled in the beautiful Algarve region, in the south of the country. Inaugurated 12 years ago, the Lusitano autodrome hosted several tests F1 in 2008-2009 before hosting several international competitions, including certain promotion formulas where the holders of the current field asserted themselves. 

Drivers who have already driven at Portimão agree that the circuit represents a spectacular challenge with a full load period estimated at around 70% of the lap time. Its undulating layout gives pride of place to aerodynamic downforce and recalls the fast curves as well as the elevation changes of Spa-Francorchamps (Belgium) and the Circuit of the Americas in Austin (United States). Finally, the width of the track – 14 meters in places – should offer some great overtaking opportunities. 

Pirelli, which will test around ten 2021 prototypes at the start of Free Practice 2, made a deliberately conservative choice by bringing its hardest range of tire compounds, C1 to C3. The manufacturer, who knows the track through its GT customers, expects the tires to be put to the test on the Lusitanian track, even if new asphalt has recently been laid.

Imperial this season, Mercedes has the opportunity to win a 7th Manufacturers' Crown in a row this weekend. The chances of such an early victory are, however, relatively slim as the German team is expected to score 40 points more than its rival. Red Bull in the Algarve. Either sign a double or finish 1st and 3rd without Max Verstappen, neither Alexander albon do not score a single point. Unlikely but we're going to be more surprising this season... 

Safe strategies

Play a victory of Lewis Hamilton in 2020 is almost like taking a penalty without a goalkeeper. Besides his talent and the quality of his Mercedes equipment, why is the six-time world champion more favorite than ever in Portimão? The Briton may claim not to pay attention to statistics, but he has the opportunity to eclipse new records in the Algarve: that of career victories, equaled in Germany by reaching 91 victories in Michael Schumacher ; but also that of the number of circuits attached to his record. Hamilton has already won on 27 different tracks and we saw at Mugello (Italy) last month that he did not miss the opportunity to conquer a new track. The Englishman also triumphed at Nürburgring, and therefore won on the first 2 tracks visited this year which were not part of the initial program. Another low-risk option: a podium finish for Max Verstappen. It's quite simple: the Red Bull driver has reached the finish line 8 times (in 11 races) this season and finished on the box each time. The Dutch star has never driven competitively in the Algarve but he went to the south of Portugal at the start of the year to grind the asphalt behind the wheel of a GT. 

Offbeat strategies 

Banking on a success of Valtteri Bottas is always tempting because such a result is much better rewarded than a success for Hamilton when the Finn also has the best car in the field. However, Verstappen, whose Red Bull slightly inflates the odds, finished 4 times ahead of his rival Mercedes in the 7 races where the two men saw the checkered flag together. Add to that a route that allows overtaking and you will understand why the Dutch option can be attractive. The Flying Dutchman also has 5 runner-up places in 2020, 2 more than Bottas. In other words, if a grain of sand seizes the Hamilton machine, there is a good chance that Verstappen will be on the lookout to take advantage of it, especially since the Red Bull driver no longer has much to hope for at the moment. Drivers championship. 

Risky strategies

2020 is a paradoxical season to say the least. While there is often little doubt about the identity of the winner given the dominance of Mercedes, we have rarely seen so many different teams climb onto the podium in recent years. A situation which can be explained by the difficulties of Ferrari and those of Alexander Albon at Red Bull. In a countryside where Lando Norris (McLaren), Carlos Sainz (McLaren), Lance stroll (RacingPoint), Daniel Ricciardo (Renault), Or Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) have already scored a Top 3, it seems almost incongruous that an opportunist like Sergio Pérez (Racing Point) has not yet enriched his personal collection. It's perhaps worth putting a small coin on the Mexican, who knows the Portimão track having driven there in the GP2 Series during the 2009 season. Leclerc's odds of a podium are, however, even more interesting, 'as much as the SF1000 has made slight progress in the last Grands Prix and will include new developments in Portugal. The Monegasque has already managed to finish in the top three in Austria and at Silverstone. So, never 2 without 3?

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