Can Mercedes claim victory in Belgium?

Facts : After a complicated start to the season, Mercedes appears to have regained much of his form. During the Grands Prix preceding the summer break, the Silver Arrows moved considerably closer to the Ferrari et Red Bull to the point of fighting for pole position like George Russell in Hungary at the end of July. So, after hitting rock bottom, or almost, Toto wolff and can his men invite themselves to the battle for victory in Belgium this weekend?

YES, by GONZALO FORBES

In crescendo. This is how we can describe the first part of the Mercedes season. Dumped in Bahrain by Red Bull and Ferrari, the Brackley-based team spent this first half of the campaign catching up rather than fighting for the top positions.

However, the Silver Arrows had a brilliant summer with two podiums for George Russell and especially five in a row for Lewis Hamilton including the latest in Hungary. In addition, the Mercedes showed a completely different face compared to the start of the season when they were, let's say it, lagging behind. Over the last five Grands Prix, only Red Bull and its 139 points do better than the Toto Wolff gang and its 135 points. Better yet, Mercedes has regained some of its splendor on the Hungaroring with the first pole position of the year for the Germans thanks to George Russell. Enough to now dream of victory? On the Mercedes side we are playing the humility card, for the moment.

« I think we need to stay humble, look weekend after weekend and try to learn and experiment., advanced Toto Wolff after the double podium in Hungary (Hamilton 2^e, Russell 3^e). It will be difficult for the championship this year so in a way we are in a situation where we can try things that we did on Friday, as frustrating as it is sometimes, and then see if we are in a position where we can fight for victories at the end of the season."

Taking the weekends one after the other is the strategy applied by the German manufacturer in a year where there have been more challenges than usual. With a much more efficient W13 than 5 months ago and a succession of very good results including podiums and a pole position, in addition to a very good pace in the race, Mercedes seems to have regained momentum. It remains to be seen whether the efforts made over the last six months will be rewarded by the long-awaited first victory of the 2022 financial year. One thing is certain in any case, the Germans have moved considerably closer to the leading group and are now seen as a real threat.

In Hungary, George Russell gave Mercedes its first pole position of the year. ©DPPI/J. Filipi

NO, by DORIAN GRANGIER

Victory: this is the last step to take for Mercedes before considering the German team back in the forefront. If the Silver Arrows have been making constant progress since the start of the season, only the top step of the podium still eludes them. In my opinion, there is almost no doubt that Mercedes will win a Grand Prix between now and Abu Dhabi... but it won't be at Spa-Francorchamps.

Please note: I do not question the ability of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell to push their machine to victory in Belgium. But with hindsight and a little reflection, success in the Ardennes terrain seems complicated to achieve. The main obstacle is the nature of the route which could give the W13 some difficulties. Spa is a circuit with more than 100 meters of difference in altitude: each turn has a difference in altitude, and there is a difference in altitude, so there are bounces. A defect that Mercedes has certainly succeeded in mitigating, but not completely erasing. And on the climb to Raidillon, it could hurt your butt a little…

I will take a more concrete and recent example to demonstrate my pessimism: the Austrian Grand Prix, contested at the beginning of July. The Spielberg circuit has the characteristics of a “mini-Spa”: a very fast “old-fashioned” track, with long straights, drops galore and turns that are either very fast or very slow. During the Styrian weekend, Mercedes tried to unload the W13 in aerodynamics. Result: two cars in the wall in qualifying, and if the final result was flattering – 3rd and 4th – the two drivers finished more than 40 seconds behind the winner, Charles Leclerc (and with one less stop).

Another fault of the Mercedes: top speed, lagging behind Ferrari and especially Red Bull. Again at Silverstone, Lewis Hamilton complained of a deficit too large to secure victory. Vmax is essential at Spa, especially on a circuit which is well suited to the versatile qualities of the two top teams. I hope for the Silver Arrows supporters that George Russell and Lewis Hamilton will make me lie this weekend... but be careful not to get excited after pole position in Hungary!

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