What role can Sprint races play in the end of the season?

Only six Grand Prix left to run and the 2024 championship F1 has not yet delivered its outcome. To spice things up a bit, Sprint races, three to be precise, will interfere in this end of the championship, starting next weekend, in Austin from October 18 to 20. As a reminder, this format awards 8 points for the first, 7 for the second, and so on up to eighth place. A format that we will find literally every other Grand Prix until the Abu Dhabi finale, and which will perhaps sow confusion.

As things stand, the gap between Max Verstappen, leader in the Drivers' standings, and Lando Norris, his runner-up, continues to shrink, weekend after weekend. After Singapore, he is 52 points behind. If the Dutchman comes second behind his rival for the last six Grands Prix of the season (including Sprint), he will still be betting on his fourth consecutive world champion title.

In Sprint, Verstappen advantage

Since the 2021 season, when Sprint races were introduced, Max Verstappen has won ten of them (that's 66,7% of Sprint wins!). He is way ahead of his competitors, since only Valtteri Bottas also won several…with only two victories. Other winners of the year were George Russell, Sergio Perez et Oscar piastri, each with a success.

Lando Norris, for his part, is not quite able to assert any dominance in this exercise. He has never won a Sprint and obtained his best result in Sao Paulo in 2023 with a second place. His only feat of arms is having managed to take two pole positions (Max Verstappen having started eight times from first place in a Sprint race). If this season is one of the first times for Norris, he who won his first Grand Prix in Miami, then perhaps he will also open his counter for the Sprints. Especially since he now has the car to do so.

As for this year, it is no exception to the rule. Max Verstappen won the first three Sprint races at the start of the season, when the Red Bull still dominated the field. Given that this is no longer the case, it seems less likely that he will win again, even if his status means that he cannot be ousted from the favorites.

The risk/benefit ratio

In any case, these three Sprint races will obviously allow either one to catch up on their delay, or the other to consolidate their lead. The temptation to take risks to gain a few points is strong. This event nevertheless has the particularity of being held on Saturday morning, just before the qualification for the Grand Prix. An element far from being insignificant.

Taking too much risk during the Sprint can lead to an accident, which is very costly for the drivers. If the damage is too severe, they might not take part in qualifying in the afternoon, because of the damage to their cars, thus penalizing themselves for the Grand Prix. Beyond the time that the car repairs can take, these are also parts changed that can lead to grid penalties for the drivers depending on their specificities or the number of changes authorized by the FIA ​​(such as for gearboxes for example).

Taking too many risks in the Sprint race to gain a few points may therefore actually be a bad choice when looking at the broader championship battle, especially with a points scale where each position gained is only worth one additional point in the Top 8. Twenty-four points are up for grabs for the winners of the last three races. McLaren has already made Oscar Piastri win this exercise last year, in Qatar. The young Australian could be a major asset for the English team to help Lando Norris in his quest for the 2024 title. If the objective is only half-admitted by the driver and his team, it is, without a doubt, well established in their minds.

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