Is the best preseason weather a poisoned gift?

On the eve of the launch of the 2026 campaign, Classic Ferrari for sale made a big impact during the preseason tests of the F1 in Bahrain. With a time of 1:31.992, Charles Leclerc is the only one of the twenty-two drivers on the grid to break the 32-minute barrier.

While test times often remain anecdotal, the reliability of the Italian block, just like that of the engine Mercedes BenzThis already seems to be established. However, the Scuderia's best time is not necessarily a guarantee of a championship victory, according to the history of the discipline since 2014.

Winter failures

In 2014 in particular, Felipe Massa set the fastest lap for Williams during the Formula 1 tests held in Bahrain while Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes secured a one-two finish in the championship. In 2016, Kimi Räikkönen set the fastest time in qualifying at Barcelona for Ferrari, before Nico Rosberg and Mercedes ultimately took the title. The same scenario played out in 2017, with Lewis Hamilton winning the Drivers' Championship and Mercedes the Constructors'. The pattern was identical in 2018 and 2019 with Sebastian Vettelforced to concede defeat to Lewis Hamilton despite promising winter tests.

More recently, in 2024, Carlos Sainz placed his Ferrari at the top of the timesheets during the Bahrain tests, but Max Verstappen et McLaren ultimately shared the world titles. The Spaniard repeated the feat in 2025 for Williams, the year of the coronation of Lando Norris and McLaren.

Confirmed successes

Over the last twelve seasons, the fastest team in preseason has only converted that performance into a world title five times. Mercedes achieved this in 2015 with Nico Rosberg and in 2020 with Valtteri BottasTheir winter performances had indeed foreshadowed their undisputed dominance. It should be noted, however, that Lewis Hamilton was crowned F1 world champion in both those years despite his teammates having set the fastest time in qualifying.

However, it is Red Bull who has best mastered this exercise in recent years. In 2021, 2022 and 2023, the Austrian team systematically confirmed on track the promises of its tests, with Max Verstappen and Sergio Pérez alternating the best times in pre-season before the Dutchman took the world titles in these three campaigns, giving his team the Constructors' crown in 2022 and 2023.

Ferrari now needs to confirm its performance during the pre-season on the track. The first answers will come at the start of the Formula 1 season, scheduled for March 8th in Melbourne, Australia.

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