Risk of thunderstorms on Sunday: what will the weather be like for the Miami Grand Prix?

The weather could well play a role this weekend in Miami. The Florida event, the fourth round of the World Championship of F1The race takes place this weekend, once again in a Sprint format. This means that teams will have very little track time before getting down to business, with only one Free Practice session before sprint qualifying. Friday and Saturday are forecast to be sunny, with temperatures around 30°C at Miami International Autodrome. These warm and stable conditions will provide a consistent backdrop for the first two days of competition, but they could prove deceptive: if rain arrives on Sunday as predicted, the teams will have no opportunity to prepare their cars for wet conditions. 

In a sprint format where each session is already limited, the margin for adaptation is virtually nonexistent—and a sudden change in the weather between Saturday and Sunday afternoon could alter the hierarchy of a grid that has been very predictable until now. This is especially true with the arrival of the rule changes introduced by the FIA. It is therefore Sunday's race that is the focus of all the questions. A probability of rain ranging from 30 to 80% between 16 p.m. and 19 p.m. on a street circuit as treacherous as Miami could completely reshuffle the standings. The F1 Academy demonstrated this last year during this same weekend: heavy rain at the start of their event forced race control to delay and then ultimately... cancel the testThe drivers explained over the radio that the track was completely unusable. A third race was then organized as a replacement, in Montreal.

F2 in discovery

The F1 Academy is not returning to Miami this year, but it will be replaced by the Formula 2 who will be discovering this circuit for the first time after the cancellation of its Middle Eastern races. A unique challenge for the young drivers, who will be performing demonstrations on a circuit none of them know outside of the simulator. Even less so in the rain, unlike the Formula 1 drivers, who experienced it in those conditions last year, in Sprint races.

This dimension resonates particularly in Miami, where an intriguing statistic has emerged since the event was added to the calendar: the pole sitter has never actually won the race. From 2022 to 2024, every driver who started from pole finished second. In 2025, Max Verstappen, who had secured pole position, finished fourth — overtaken by the two McLaren byOscar piastri et Lando Norris as well as by the Mercedes Benz George Russell in a race dominated by the Australian's pace. If rain were to arrive on Sunday, this trend could well continue for a fifth consecutive year, to the benefit of a strategist capable of reading the conditions better than his rivals in a moment of organized chaos. 

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