Monte Carlo Rally: Who are the favorites?

A few days before Rally Monte Carlo, the AUTOhebdo editorial team is playing the prediction game: who are the contenders for this first event of the season? It's hard not to mention the defending champion, a ten-time winner of the event. But, behind Sébastien Ogier, other boys will have legitimate ambitions. Thierry Neuville will want to win there for the third time in his career, and Elfyn Evans will most certainly want to finally add his name to the list of winners of the event and Adrien fourmaux to take advantage of the opportunity to unlock his victory tally in the World Rally Championship.

Five stars – Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Thierry Neuville

The two strongmen of the fold Toyota The 2024 World Rally Champion and others are obviously considered strong contenders. Free from the awkward comparison with his illustrious predecessor, Sébastien Ogier can fully concentrate on his quest for an eleventh victory in the principality. The Gap native, who holds the record for most wins at the event, would further cement his legendary status. His Belgian counterpart also has a date with destiny at Monte Carlo: having missed out on the 2025 edition, as well as the championship as a whole despite a victory in Saudi Arabia, Thierry Neuville wants to make this season opener his moment. He dominated the 2024 edition and also won Monte Carlo in 2020. As for Elfyn Evans, who can be considered one of the favorites, if not the favorite, for the world title, he too will have a strong case to make. Having achieved four podium finishes in the event, he is obviously one of the top contenders for this 2026 edition.

Four stars – Adrien Fourmaux

A victory in 2025 might have allowed Adrien Fourmaux to feature in the paragraph above. The French rally community eagerly awaits the first World Rally Championship win for the driver from northern France, who came close to achieving this feat in Saudi Arabia to close out the previous season. Often comfortable at Monte Carlo, and more generally in these tricky conditions, the former Rallye Jeunes winner reached the podium (3rd) last year in his very first appearance in the series. WRC in his new colors. With a season under his belt at the wheel of the i20N Rally1, including two consecutive victories at the Rallye Hivernal du Dévoluy, and with his tenacity and desire to do well, he won't miss any opportunity to triumph. We can only wish him success in this endeavor.

Three stars – Oliver Solberg

Oliver Solberg will be under intense scrutiny in 2026. The surprise winner of Rally Estonia and 2025 WRC2 World Champion, he is considered a serious contender at the start of this season but, understandably, still lacks the experience behind the wheel of the Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 to be considered a favorite. In the past, the son of the 2003 World Rally Champion has sometimes encountered difficulties at Monte Carlo and was unable to participate in the 2022 edition in the Hyundai The i20N Rally1 Hybrid was withdrawn for health reasons. This experience would certainly have helped him, especially in preparing for his return to the top level this season. But now, he must be considered a winner of a World Rally Championship round, and like any good driver of that stature, the Swede could also be the surprise of the rally.

Two stars – Sami Pajari, Takamoto Katsuta

We're still waiting for Sami Pajari to truly break through in the WRC, despite his first podium finish in Japan last year (3rd), and Monte Carlo might not be the ideal stage for that to happen… Indeed, Pajari went off the road last year at the start of his journey in the top tier and has sometimes struggled to demonstrate his potential. However, his WRC3 victory in 2022 works in his favor. Takamoto Katsuta also went off the road in his last Monte Carlo Rally. His best result, a 6th place finish achieved twice, in 2021 and 2023, doesn't really allow the Japanese driver to be considered a strong contender. But both drivers have the reigning World Champion car, are experienced, and know which mistakes to avoid on this rally. You never know…

One star – Josh McErlean, Jon Armstrong, Grégoire Munster, Hayden Paddon

Without meaning any disrespect to the four drivers involved, it's difficult to award them more stars. Josh McErlean demonstrated sensible caution last year by finishing 7th, while Grégoire Munster made a mistake: the Belgian driver has only just returned from the Dakar Rally, even though the adventure ended earlier than expected, and hasn't had adequate preparation. Jon Armstrong will be competing in his very first rally in the top category this week and will primarily need to get to grips with his new car. Finally, Hayden Paddon returns to Monte Carlo for the first time since 2017, an event tragically marred by an accident that resulted in the death of a spectator. Despite his extensive experience and two recent European Rally Championship titles, the challenge facing the Kiwi seems extremely daunting for him to be able to play anything more than a supporting role. Let's not be mistaken: if one of them were to rise higher in this hierarchy, it would be a truly wonderful story…

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