Monte Carlo weather: Difficult conditions expected?

As with every start of Monte Carlo week, this is the question on the minds of fans, teams and their drivers: what will the weather conditions be like during the rally With just a few days to go before the big start, we've put together our weather forecast for the Monte Carlo Rally, which should, of course, be taken with a grain of salt. However, a median value emerges from all the analyses of the various experts on the subject: this 2026 Monte Carlo Rally could be a real headache when it comes to tire choices and should offer tricky conditions. First off, the sun is expected to make a brief appearance at Wednesday's Shakedown in the hills above Gap… and then disappear again. Bad news for spectators, even if they will undoubtedly enjoy the warmth of the crowds along the stages to raise the temperature. But as for the temperature of the tires used by the crews, that's probably another story…

A first day that was incredibly complicated

From the very start of the Monte Carlo Rally, the competitors' nerves are sure to be tested. With the first stage located further south, as the crews will set off from Monaco early Thursday afternoon, and two other stages this time closer to Gap, making the right choices during the tire fitting zone on the Rock will be crucial. Indeed, there is a visible risk of snow on SS2 and SS3, Esclangon/Seyne-les-Alpes and Vaumeilh/Claret, while the Toudon stage (SS1) is expected to be "only" wet. Furthermore, the competitors will also have to take visibility into account: with a scheduled start at 18:35 pm, the second stage of the leg will already be run in the dark, as will the third, which is scheduled to start at 20:35 pm. The reconnaissance runs for the stage, carried out on Monday, January 19th, were of great importance, as these two special stages are relatively new to most of the crews involved. Some are calling it a real deciding factor when discussing the section between Esclangon and Seyne-les-Alpes, due to the speeds that will be reached there and the gravel currently present.

Rain is expected on Friday.

While temperatures will be low throughout the Monte Carlo Rally, Friday is expected to be dominated by rain. It will be the most challenging stage of the rally, with nearly 130 kilometers of timed sections to cover and three special stages to be run twice. At the time of writing, the only stage with a risk of snowfall is La-Bâtie-des-Fonds (SS6 and SS9). Crossing the border between the Drôme and Hautes-Alpes departments, this stage could be pristine during its two runs, scheduled for 11:50 AM and 6:05 PM. However, if the snowfall materializes, it could significantly alter the day's course, as this stage concludes the day's loops. The stage was reconnoitered by all competitors on Tuesday, January 20th.

Vaumeilh under snow, Monaco under water on Saturday?

For the rally's return to the Vaumeilh stage, which was already run on Thursday, snow is expected. Be aware that the stage will start at 09:55 AM, relatively early, suggesting low temperatures and therefore, potentially, black ice in addition to the snow. This day will feature an unusual format, as the crews will head to Monaco in the afternoon to compete in a super special stage laid out on the Grand Prix circuit. Formula 1There, they should find rain, a recurring theme throughout the weekend. The 2,69-kilometer special stage is not expected to offer any sporting surprises and will primarily be a great moment of connection with the spectators present… even if mistakes happen quickly: it wasn't Conrad Rautenbach who went off the road in his Citroën Xsara. WRC The 2008 rally is still making the rounds on social media today, who can deny it? It was precisely in 2008 that the rally last visited the rock in this way.

Will there be any twists and turns on the final day?

Last year, the snow surprised everyone on the Col du Turini special stage: while it was expected to make only sporadic appearances, it actually settled in very early and made the final section extremely tricky. Still in contention for the win at the time, Adrien fourmaux had paid the price for choosing tires ill-suited to those conditions, preventing her from achieving anything better than a third place, which was already quite respectable. This year, according to the information we have at the moment, she should be back, as she was on the previous special stage, which will cross the Col de Braus and Col de la Cabanette, returning to Monte Carlo for the first time in a single special stage since 2023. More than the possibility of snow falling, it's the predicted amounts that are currently raising various questions: in theory, we should witness a stage worthy of Monte Carlo! And if this final stage does indeed turn out to be snowy, it could offer some major twists and turns just hours before the end of the rally. We wouldn't mind that at all…

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