Will the 2020 season ever start?

A Grand Prix of Formula 1 will it take place this year? This is the million-dollar question, to say the least! Remember that sport draws its income from 3 major sources: the packages paid by the 22 promoters of the calendar, the sums paid by the official broadcasters to acquire the rights to the discipline, and the 6 major partners which are DHL, Pirelli, Emirates, Heineken, Rolex, and the Saudi oil company Aramco announced just before Melbourne.

The holder of the commercial rights, the FOM, must then pay part of this nest egg, which is around a billion dollars (915 million euros), to the 10 teams in the form of financial rewards, the famous prize money, established according to complex, if not nebulous, distribution keys.

Chase Carey, CEO of the Formula One Group, has already suggested that the FOM will not collect its fees for the postponed but impossible to reschedule rounds in what looks more and more like a gigantic headache due to the pandemic period that we are going through.

On the broadcaster side, we are apparently entitled to request a rebate, according to a decreasing scale, if fewer than 15 races are maintained. The same goes for sponsors. In short, to put it simply: without a race, there is no money coming in.

Hence undoubtedly the voluntarism shown by F1 in its comments, as evidenced by the recent declarations of sporting director Ross Brawn who said he wanted to aim for a program of 19 races from the beginning of July.

The latest trends point towards an opening on that date, in Austria, and behind closed doors. The country, which began a gradual de-confinement this week, announced through its vice-chancellor and minister of sports Werner Kogler that it would not block the Grand Prix. THE Red Bull Ring could even host several races, before the process is repeated at Silverstone and/or elsewhere in Europe.

These are just assumptions from the last remote meeting of the team bosses Thursday last, as several sources have confirmed to us, one of them however telling us that there “ was nothing very accomplished ».

• The big closed session?

Some teams, however, warn against the risk of a haphazard schedule. “ There must be a minimum of income to justify the triggering of a season, confided Cyril Abiteboul, main team of Renault F1 Team, to AUTOhebdo last week. A Formula 1 campaign means revenue but also costs.

A season with 5 GPs, or even 10 GPs, without an audience, and which would result in a drop in prize money of 70 or 80%, is not necessarily in our economic interest. We did our accounts and simulations. We know what our budget looks like if there are 15 races, 6 races, or none. But a white season is not necessarily the worst scenario ».

Typically, there is no point in wanting to organize a Grand Prix at all costs and on the other side of the world only to cancel it the day before... Note that in a desire to streamline and simplify the decision-making process, the full powers have been granted to the FOM and the FIA ​​to establish the calendar. And this in order also to avoid political blockages where a stable, at random Ferrari, would absolutely like to race on a certain circuit, perhaps Monza.

In the same vein, a majority of only 60% of teams is now required to ratify changes linked to the format of race weekends. Brawn has already mentioned the possibility of meetings condensed over two days.

But here too, how will the promoters who can only count on ticket sales to cover (roughly) their costs react? Not to mention the logistical challenge of organizing an F1 GP, especially behind closed doors?

Austrian Vice-Chancellor Werner Kogler pointed out during the week that it had nothing to do with a football match. Even by reducing the staff of the teams, engine manufacturers, suppliers, and officials to the bare minimum, it is difficult to fall below the 1 people present on the same site. And again, that’s without counting the additional championships, F2, F3, and Porsche Supercup.

Will everyone need to be tested beforehand? Will staff only be able to attend given the current travel restrictions? Could exemptions be granted for F1's arrival in the Styrian hills at the start of July? Werner Kogler did not want to comment.

While healthcare workers are fighting tirelessly on the front line, will the populations accept the organization of a sporting event on their territory? More generally, which promoter or government will take the risk of organizing a large-scale sporting event as long as a vaccine and/or treatment does not exist?

F1, which in its 70 years of existence has become accustomed to moving at its own pace, without worrying about the torments of the outside world, finds itself condemned to a waiting position that is as unprecedented as it is unnatural.