AUTOhebdo predictions for Imola: first trends

After 14 years of absence, the Formula 1 returns to Imola for the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, the 3rd event organized on Italian soil this season after that of Monza and Mugello last month. 

The Autodromo Enzo and Dino Ferrari had not roared to the sound of Formula 1 single-seaters in competition since 2006 and a victory for Ferrari and Michael Schumacher, emerged victorious from a Homeric duel with the Renault de Fernando Alonso. Juan Pablo Montoya then completed the podium for McLaren-Mercedes. 

It is with pleasure that the drivers will return to or discover a narrow, bumpy, technical circuit, and made up of turns with evocative names such as the Variante Villeneuve, Tosa, Acque Minerali, or even Rivazza. 

From the current field, only Kimi Räikkönen (Alfa Romeo) was already present on the grid during the previous appearance of the premier category at Imola. Most of his comrades, however, had the opportunity to drive on the transalpine autodrome during their training years in the lower categories. 

A major feature: the Emilia-Romagna GP weekend is condensed over two days with a single 90-minute free practice session on Saturday morning, followed by qualifying in the afternoon, before the race on Sunday.

One might believe that this is a leap into the unknown for the teams, but they were already able to get a taste of the situation in Germany 3 weeks ago when the Friday runs were canceled due to the weather. The drivers even had even less preparation at the Nürburgring because the FP3 session on Saturday morning had not been extended and therefore only lasted 60 minutes. 

The only difference lies in the allocation of Pirelli tires since the teams will only be able to use 10 sets for dry weather over the entire weekend, compared to the usual 13. The Italian firm selected a range a little less tender than in Portugal last week by bringing its C2, C3, and C4 compounds 

Almost invincible in 2020, Mercedes has the opportunity to bag a 7th world title in a row among Manufacturers. The German team must therefore enjoy an advantage of 176 points on the evening of the Imola meeting, but to date it has 220. Suffice to say that the matter is practically in the bag. The suspense is hardly more unbreathable in the Drivers ranking where Lewis Hamilton moves serenely towards a 7th personal crown. 

• Safe strategies

We won't tell you anything: the Mercedes will once again be the big favorites of the weekend. Comfortable on all terrains, the W11 is the most advanced Silver Arrow (now black) of the hybrid era. The Brackley team (United Kingdom) has also proven that it knows how to perfectly adapt to the routes added to the 2020 calendar due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Mercedes indeed won at Mugello, at the Nürburgring, and at Portimão, despite scenarios which could have favored surprise results (multiple red flags in Tuscany, polar temperatures across the Rhine, and tarmac slippery like an ice rink in Algarve). Three slightly crazy races with the same winner in the end: Lewis Hamilton, even less shared this season than in previous ones. Will the six-time world champion miss the opportunity to add a 29th circuit to his list? We very much doubt it. Facing him, Valtteri Bottas is still a frustrating option for bettors because it offers much more attractive odds (4,25* for a victory for the Finn at Imola compared to 1,35* for a success for his teammate), often dominates Hamilton in free practice, but only too rarely comes to fruition. 

• Offbeat strategies

Undefeated in qualifying this season, Mercedes nevertheless saw its advantage over Red Bull on a flying lap reduce after the introduction of a single engine mode. While the gap between the leading W11 and Max Verstappen tended to flirt with full second at the start of the second, the Dutchman was 0”293 and 0”252 behind the leading Mercedes at the Nürburgring and Portimão. Therefore, an odds of 6,00* for Verstappen's pole position at Imola is attractive. And if you are convinced by the chances of “Mad Max”, a success from the Dutchman is also well paid with odds of 5,25*. 

• Risky strategies

Recently reappointed to Alpha Tauri for season 2021, Pierre Gasly is definitely in full swing this year. The winner of Monza has just taken a 6th and a 5th place after high-flying performances in Germany and Portugal. On his team's land – Faenza is around twenty minutes from Imola – the Frenchman will have the advantage of knowing the terrain since he came to drive at the Autodromo Enzo and Dino Ferrari earlier in the year. With odds of 20,00*, betting on a podium finish for the Frenchman this Sunday could tempt the more playful. His replacement at Red Bull Racing, Alexander albon, would be well advised to put in a big performance this weekend to try to maintain some hope of keeping his seat next year. Offered at odds of 13,00*, a Top 3 from the Thai, who was on the box at Mugello, may be worth it. Not to mention a possible victory which, although very unlikely, would pay off very big with odds of 150,00* (compared to 80,00* for a success of Daniel Ricciardo for example while Renault appeared in difficulty last weekend in Portimão). 

Find all the possible combinations for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix on the Parions Sport website: www.enligne.parionssport.fdj.fr/paris-formule-1.

*Odds noted this Thursday at 18:00 p.m.