AUTOhebdo predictions in Sakhir: first trends

The package of Lewis Hamilton following a positive screening for Covid-19 came to completely reshuffle the cards of this Sakhir Grand Prix which already did not lack spice on paper. 

Contested on the outer track of the Bahrain international circuit, which some describe as an oval even if we are far from American speedways, the penultimate round of an incredible 2020 season already promised a good dose of the unknown. 

Theoretically, the absence of the seven-time world champion on the grid on Sunday – a first since the 2007 Australian Grand Prix! – gives free rein to his teammate Mercedes Valtteri Bottas. The Finn will, however, have to be wary of his new garage neighbor George Russell, whose potential we will be able to better appreciate in the face of stiffer competition, as well as the inevitable Max Verstappen (Red Bull).

• A boulevard for Bottas in qualifying?

On paper, Bottas is the big favorite to dominate the 2nd Bahraini weekend in a row and the odds are showing, especially in qualifying where the Mercedes is almost invincible this season. 

A pole position for the Finn is thus rated at 1,60* compared to 3* for Verstappen and 3,25* for Russell. The newly promoted Briton has, however, always dominated his teammate on Saturday afternoons since his debut in F1 with Williams last year. 

That’s a series of 36 consecutive victories in qualifying. So yes, Russell competed against Robert Kubica, who returned to F1 after 8 years of absence and a terrible accident in rally, and Nicholas latifi, which is not really a thunderbolt of war. But still. Getting a Williams into Q2 9 times this season is no small feat.

In view of the odds offered, it is perhaps almost more tempting to play a Russell pole on Saturday. 

• Verstappen favorite in the race? 

Bottas and Verstappen have seen the checkered flag together 10 times this season. The score ? 5-5. No surprise then that the Mercedes driver and his rival Red Bull have the same victory odds set at 2,40*. However, we have the impression that this tie is worth a victory for the Dutchman, who has intrinsically less competitive equipment. 

Verstappen is one of those great beasts attracted by the smell of victory as well as that of blood and there is no doubt that Hamilton's absence will have awakened a ferocious appetite in him. It remains to be seen if the Mercedes engine, the absolute benchmark this season, will not allow Bottas to keep the hungry Honda-powered car at bay. 

In these circumstances, the odds of a Russell – 3,50* – may prove interesting. It was still 900 last Monday... This shows that English hope has changed in dimension in the space of a few days. 

• Other scenarios to watch out for

Mercedes against Max is the scenario announced before each race weekend but we have never seen so many different drivers on the podium in 2020 (12 in total).

Who could benefit from a possible misstep by the leading trio? Alexander albon, who still plays his place at Red Bull? Sergio Pérez, who was about to climb on the box last Sunday before being betrayed by his Racing Point? The two men share the same odds for a Top 3 finish, namely 2,85*. 

In the additional categories, a Top 6 of Lance stroll (Racing Point) orEsteban Ocon (Renault) would bring you more: 4 times your stake for such a result from the Canadian, 5 times for a finish in the top 6 for the Frenchman. 

The penultimate meeting of the season promises to be undecided to say the least, with also the debut in F1 of 2 drivers (Pietro Fittipaldi at Haas, and Jack Aitken with Williams) and could therefore give rise to some nice surprises. 

Find all the odds and betting combinations on the Parions Sport website. 

*Odds may vary