AUTOhebdo predictions: results of free practice

What lessons can be learned from the last Friday of a 2020 season full of surprises? 

We'll make it short for you: the stable Mercedes will lock the 1st row of the starting grid, as it has done continuously since 2014; Max Verstappen will be 3rd in qualifying, his initials are already embroidered on the corresponding chair at the FI press conference; and behind, it will be the rat race. 

Explanations. 

• Mercedes untouchable

The German team concluded the year as it began: with a bang and far in front. 

Verstappen may have set the best time in Free Practice 1, the Black Arrows reacted to nightfall by dominating the 2nd session of the day, contested in more representative conditions, because they are closer to those encountered in qualifying and in the race. 

At ease on all terrains, the W11 shines as much on the long straights of the Yas Marina circuit as in its 3rd and final winding sector. Relegated to 0''770 of the reference established by Valtteri Bottas Friday evening, Verstappen will be closer on Saturday since the Dutchman was hampered by Sergio Pérez (Racing Point) during his timed attempt with the Soft tires. 

Despite an attractive odds of 6*, we cannot therefore strongly advise you against betting on a pole position for the driver Red Bull. On the other hand, a success for Verstappen on Sunday (proposed at 5*) would not be a total surprise, for two reasons. 

Firstly, the Flying Dutchman has often taken the advantage of Bottas in races this season. Second, who really knows what state of freshness it is in Lewis Hamilton after having spent 10 particularly unpleasant days due to a Covid-19 infection?

The seven-time world champion did not want to comment on the issue on Friday evening after an overall solid opening day for his return to the wheel. 2020, however, will have taught us that the Coronavirus was not insignificant and piloting a car of Grands Prix so soon after getting rid of the illness is almost unprecedented. 

Given his record in 2020 (11 victories and 10 poles in 15 meetings), the Briton nevertheless remains favorite, both in qualifying (odds of 1,7* for a pole) and in the race (victory presented at 1,55, 2,4*) but the Bottas option (pole at 3*, success at XNUMX*) may be worth it. 

• In a pocket square

Behind the inevitable leading trio, the gaps are very tight, if not tiny. 3 thousandths (0''003!) thus separated Esteban Ocon, 6th in EL2, from his teammate Renault Daniel Ricciardo, 9th at the end of the evening session. 

In this fierce fight for places of honor, it will be necessary to keep in mind that the hero of Sakhir, Sergio Pérez, will be forced to start at the back of the grid after having received several new engine elements on his Racing Point-Mercedes. 

Lance stroll could he take over from his teammate? A podium for the Canadian, who has already signed a pair of Top 3 finishes in 2020, is offered at the attractive odds of 8,5*. 

The Silverstone team currently occupies 3rd place in the Manufacturers' ranking but McLaren and Renault have not said their last word, while Ferrari (mostly Charles Leclerc), And Alpha Tauri could come and play luxury referees.

• Beware of reliability

As we enter the home stretch of an intense season, both men and machines are logically showing signs of running out of steam. 

We saw it this Friday with a fuel pressure problem for Ricciardo on his Renault in FP1, a problem with MGU-K at Williams on the FW43 of the returning George Russell in EL2, and a single-seater on fire for Kimi Räikkönen with his Alfa Romeo at the end of the day.

Most teams use equipment at the end of the cycle on Friday and therefore do not risk a penalty a priori, but these technical failures have reminded us that all drivers remain at the mercy of their equipment. 

Find all possible odds and betting combinations for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on the Parions Sport website. 

*Odds likely to vary before the start of qualifying and between now and the start of the GP