Why is Max Verstappen the big favorite to win the world title?

For the first time since 2013, a Red Bull won the United States Grand Prix. The end of a “curse” and above all a new demonstration of force on the part of Max Verstappen who, despite a failed start, seemed untouchable. There are five rounds remaining this season, and the Dutchman has a 12-point lead. A significant lead in such a context, even if nothing is decided, since there remain 133 points to distribute.

A favorable calendar

Before heading to the Middle East to compete in three Grands Prix in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, the drivers of Formula 1 will travel to Mexico and Brazil. Of the five remaining circuits, two are new on the calendar (the Jeddah route and that of Losail). The last race at the São Paulo autodrome was won by Max Verstappen in 2019, the same for that of Yas Marina last year, on land which nevertheless historically smiles at Mercedes since the start of the hybrid era. Regarding the last edition of the Mexican Grand Prix, it was won by Lewis Hamilton, but the Dutchman also knows the joys of victory, having won in 2018. We will also not forget that he took pole position there, before being disinherited for not having slowed down under the yellow flag . In short, these tracks all suit the current championship leader. Especially since the next two Grands Prix will take place at altitude which will be a real advantage for Red Bull as was the case during previous editions. “We need to win ten races (currently 8, Editor’s note) if we want to win the title this year; so we have two left to go find, judged Helmut Marko on Sky Sport. Mexico and Brazil should suit us better because of the altitude.” 

Of course, victory is far from assured for Jos Verstappen's son, but he will arrive with confidence in Mexico and Brazil. If he were to achieve a better result than the Briton, he could force Lewis Hamilton to necessarily win the last three rounds, which would put the seven-time world champion under great pressure. Max Verstappen could then just manage, as Nico Rosberg did in 2016, finishing second in the last four Grands Prix to win the title. 

Who will be world champion at the end of this season? Photo Antonin Vincent / DPPI

A car faster and more reliable

The United States Grand Prix showed the speed differences between Verstappen and Hamilton. The Briton's offbeat strategy does not entirely explain the fact that he never managed to get back on his opponent. Despite a failed start and a change of strategy in the middle of the race, the Dutchman had confidence in his car, which was fighting on equal terms with the W12 of the reigning world champion. « An aggressive strategy was needed after losing the lead at the first corner. We gave everything and, in the end, it worked in terms of strategy but it was complicated in the last laps because I didn't have much grip left and we managed to hold on. ».

Another point to emphasize and which makes Mercedes engineers tremble, is the reliability of the two competitors' cars. In Russia, Max Verstappen changed his entire engine, while in Turkey, Hamilton opted to change a single part in his engine. The Dutchman started last while the Briton had fallen back only ten places.  The objective is obviously to complete the season without changing engines again for Red Bull. On the other hand, it risks being complicated for Mercedes. If serenity reigns among the Austrian team, the same cannot be said among the Silver Arrows. A new penalty on the starting grid for the seven-time world champion could be fatal in the fight for the title. Despite this, Toto wolff expressed doubts about this end of the year, at the microphone of Sky Sport. “The fourth engine can last until the end of the season, but there could be a point where we say it's worth putting in a new one because the other one is in danger. We will see how this end of the season goes in terms of points”. At Red Bull, there are no signs of concern. We intend to finish the season without changing power units for the 5th time for the championship leader. Which is very good news for Verstappen who will not have to move up the entire peloton in order to limit the damage.

Verstappen displays statistics worthy of a champion

If the Dutchman dominates the championship in terms of points, he also impresses by posting high-level statistics. Before the United States Grand Prix, Max Verstappen led for 469 laps since the start of the season. This was more than the rest of the grid combined (465 laps). Lewis Hamilton only spent 133 laps at the front. The Batavian has the firm intention of leaving no chance for the one who has reached 100 victories in F1 to do it again. Of the 17 events contested, he won 8, or almost half. An impressive figure when we observe that it took the native of Hasselt (Belgium) 5 seasons to score 10 victories before the start of the year. Mad Max therefore does almost as well in a single season as in the previous five. Finally, the last piece of data to make the opponents pale: with the exception of the Hungarian round contested on a battered car and his three retirements in Azerbaijan, Silverstone and Italy, he has never finished lower than second! Even his start at the back of the grid in Sochi caused by his engine penalty did not prevent him from finishing on the podium. Additionally, he made his first pass of three by winning the Grand Prix of France, Styria and Austria. 

However, Max Verstappen's lead is far from definitive, and Christian Horner prefers to play the cautious card: “It’s very close between the two teams. Mexico was a good circuit for us, but it was also good for them. So let's not underestimate them. Twelve points is nothing, it can disappear very quickly, as we saw previously. We have to continue to attack on race weekends and maximize. There are five left, the pressure is only increasing.” This season, the figures and the trend show that the Dutchman seems to be heading towards a first coronation. But be careful, we are not immune to a turnaround in a completely crazy season. There are five races left and it is hard to see Lewis Hamilton giving up so easily. 

Max vs The World 👀😮#F1 @Max33Verstappen pic.twitter.com/6zC9B3qMI7

- Formula 1 (@ F1) October 13, 2021