Should we really count on Bagnaia in the fight for the title?

Facts : Winner in Assen (Netherlands), Francesco Bagnaia ended a series of two consecutive falls (Catalonia and Germany). In addition, “Pecco” carried out the perfect operation since he regained 25 points from fabio quartararo, who did not finish the last Grand Prix after two falls in the space of a few minutes, thus falling 66 lengths behind the Frenchman, leader of the championship. We then wonder if the Italian should be considered a real candidate for the title despite falling behind the Habs.

YES, by Thomas Morsellino

At mid-season, Francesco Bagnaia is 66 points behind Fabio Quartararo, defending champion. Last year, after 11 Grands Prix, the Italian was 47 lengths behind the Frenchman. There are therefore 19 units of difference between 2021 and 2022, or less than one race. And unlike last season, there are two more events on the calendar and, above all, the return of meetings in Japan (Motegi), Thailand (Buriram), Australia (Phillip Island) and Malaysia (Sepang), circuits who have no longer appeared on the program since 2019. It is therefore on neutral ground that Quartararo and Bagnaia will face each other in four of the nine remaining rounds. Of course, there were winter tests in Sepang at the beginning of February, but the conditions will be completely different next October. A “comeback” promises to be difficult for Bagnaia, but not insurmountable.

There are a few tracks where the Ducati GP22 could make the difference against the Yamaha YZR-M1, notably in Austria and Malaysia. However, we must expect some surprises... Today, the Ducatis work well on circuits that do not usually suit them (like in Assen) and vice versa (like in Catalonia). Even Quartararo cannot explain it: “ It's difficult to understand and explain, he said after the last meeting in Assen. We can say that there are no longer really Ducati or Yamaha tracks. These are tracks where you have to get used to and do the best you can every weekend. »

Thus, in Austria, an event dominated by the reds since the return of Red Bull (formerly A1-Ring) on ​​the calendar in 2016 (with the exception of two KTM victories), we could well end up with a Yamaha success... And vice versa, at Silverstone where the Borgo Panigale factory only has one success today with Andrea Dovizioso in 2017, a GP22 could well take first place. Last year before his big blunder at the Emilia-Romagna GP, “Pecco” was still mathematically in contention for the title. So, yes, to get back to 66 points, we will have to work hard, but a mistake (or even two in the same race like in Assen for Quartararo) can quickly happen. Today, Quartararo leads the championship with a comfortable lead, but if he fights for his own succession, Bagnaia has nothing to lose. As proof, this year, when he appears on the podium, it is always on the first step... No (anymore) room for half-measures for the protégé of Valentino Rossi.

NO, by Medhi Casaurang

With Francesco Bagnaia, it's all or nothing. This is how we could summarize his first half of the 2022 campaign. The spearhead of the Ducati team remains on three consecutive victories (Jerez, Mugello, Assen)… when he sees the finish line. Indeed, between his three appearances on the podium, the Italian finished with all four irons in the air.

At Le Mans, he lost control of his Ducati all by himself. Instead of calming down after an off-road excursion, “Pecco” decided to get back to Enea Bastianini (Ducati) as quickly as possible. Let's move on to the first braking accident in Barcelona, ​​where he was harpooned by Taka Nakagami (Honda).

At the Sachsenring, he once again confused speed and haste by wanting at all costs to keep in touch with the championship leader, Fabio Quartararo. Add to that a disastrous inaugural event in Qatar, where overly optimistic braking put him in the pile, taking away another Ducati representative, Jorge Martin!

If he wants to lose the pawn to Fabio Quartararo, Pecco Bagnaia cannot always count on “free” weekends from the Frenchman. Assen is, hopefully, a mistake like everyone else in this competition. The 25-year-old driver must also gain in consistency; this is how Fabio Quartararo became world champion.

Pecco Bagnaia must also find a way to score big points when victory seems out of reach, which he has not always been able to do. Excellent in qualifying and when the track is clear in front of him on Sunday, the Transalpine has not yet shown sufficient guarantees during delicate situations in a peloton. He also needs to improve in the rain. In Indonesia, he drank without being able to understand why (started 6th, arrived 15th).

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